Solo Mining Odds (2025): Chances, Probability & Expected Time to Find a Block
- September 21, 2025
- foer
Get a realistic view of your solo mining odds—what actually drives the chance to find a block, how block time affects near-term probability, and when solo makes sense for home miners.
Solo mining probability is governed by three levers: your hashrate, the network’s total hashrate, and how long you mine. On large networks like Bitcoin, small home rigs face lottery-level odds; on faster/smaller networks the odds improve short-term but bring trade-offs (liquidity, price swings, stale/orphan dynamics). This guide gives you a reusable formula and practical next steps—try the Solo Chance Calculator, then sanity-check costs with the Profitability Calculator.
Key Take Aways
- Quick formula: expected blocks/day ≈ (your_hash ÷ network_hash) × blocks/day; P(≥1 in T days) ≈ 1 − e^(−expected × T).
- Block cadence matters: more blocks/day = more independent “draws” for the same hash share.
- Variance is brutal: solo has huge luck swings; pools smooth payouts without changing long-run EV (fees aside).
- Best framed as hobby/learning + sovereignty, not predictable income.
How solo mining odds really work
Each hash is an independent try; wins arrive irregularly (variance). You control hashrate share (h/H) and time (T); the protocol controls difficulty to keep a target block interval (e.g., ~10 minutes on Bitcoin). If you want the cryptographic background, read the Bitcoin whitepaper and the Bitcoin Wiki on blocks & difficulty. If you just want numbers, use the Solo Chance Calculator and harden your setup with Power & Safety (120V/240V) and Wi-Fi vs Ethernet.
The 10-second formula
- Expected blocks/day: λ_day = (your_hash ÷ network_hash) × blocks/day
- Chance of ≥1 block in T days: P = 1 − e^(−λ_day × T)
Prefer one click? The calculator handles it: Solo Chance Calculator
- Chance of ≥1 block in T days: P = 1 − e^(−λ_day × T)
Worked examples
Assume Bitcoin network hashrate H = 600 EH/s and ≈144 blocks/day:
- Bitaxe Gamma (~1.2 TH/s) → expected/day ≈ 2.88×10⁻⁷ → ~0.01% chance in 365 days. See our Bitaxe Gamma review for device context (ultra-low power, open-source).
- NerdQaxe++ (~4.8 TH/s @ ~72–76 W) → expected/day ≈ 1.152×10⁻⁶ → ~0.04% in 365 days.
- Avalon Nano 3S (~6 TH/s @ ≤140 W) → expected/day ≈ 1.44×10⁻⁶ → ~0.05% in 365 days. See the quiet-desktop angle in the Avalon Nano 3S review.
Prefer steadier payouts? Learn payout schemes in Pools for Home Miners or try a minimal relay via CKPool Setup.
Block time & cadence (why it changes near-term odds)
Blocks/day doesn’t change your hash share, but it increases how many independent “draws” you get within a fixed window.
| Network (Algorithm) | Target block time | ≈ Blocks/day | Why it matters | References |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin (SHA-256) | ~10 min | ~144 | Slower cadence; long droughts common at small h/H. | Blocks • Difficulty • reward now 3.125 BTC |
| Litecoin (Scrypt) | ~2.5 min | ~576 | Faster cadence → more short-term trials. | Litecoin docs |
| Dogecoin (Scrypt, merged-mined) | ~1 min | ~1,440 | Very fast cadence; merged with LTC. | Dogecoin docs |
| Ethereum Classic (Etchash) | ~13 s | ~6,600 | High trial count; check liquidity/fees. | ETC ecosystem |
| Kaspa (kHeavyHash, blockDAG) | high rate | very high | Extremely frequent blocks; verify current rate. | Kaspa docs |
| Nervos CKB (Eaglesong) | sub-10 s typical | thousands | Fast cadence on a UTXO-style chain. | CKB dev portal |
| Siacoin (Blake2b) | ~10 min | ~144 | Storage-focused chain; confirm pool options. | Sia docs |
If apartment noise is your constraint, start with Quiet Apartment Mining and explore quiet SHA-256 options like Avalon Nano 3S or Braiins Mini Miner BMM101; for side-by-side trade-offs, see Bitaxe Gamma vs Avalon Nano 3S.
Solo vs pool: variance, expected value, and payout experience
Solo preserves extreme variance—months of nothing, then a jackpot (or never). Pools convert the same long-run expected value (minus fees) into steady payouts. If you want a minimal-infrastructure taste of solo, many home miners test relay-style “solo endpoints” (pay only if you hit a block). Then decide: pure solo, pool, or a hybrid (solo on smaller chains, pool on BTC).
Start here: Pools for Home Miners → payout types, fees, and latency tips.
Hands-on: CKPool Setup → point a miner quickly without exposing your own node.
Calculate your own chance (step-by-step)
- Note your hashrate from the miner dashboard (e.g., 6 TH/s).
- Pull network hashrate and current block cadence from a reputable explorer or docs for your chain.
- Compute expected/day = (h ÷ H) × blocks/day.
- Choose a horizon (30/90/365 days) and compute P(≥1) = 1 − e^(−expected × T).
Prefer one click? Use the Solo Chance Calculator, then check kWh costs via the Profitability Calculator.
Practical tips that actually improve outcomes
Keep uptime high (Ethernet if possible; else follow Wi-Fi vs Ethernet for a stable Wi-Fi), control temps and dust to avoid throttling, and monitor stale/orphan rates (misconfigurations waste effective hash). Choose chains on more than “easy blocks”—weigh security, liquidity, and tooling you’ll rely on day-to-day. For quiet homes, begin with Quiet Apartment Mining and research hardware in our reviews and comparisons.
FAQ's
Is solo mining profitable?
For most home miners on large networks, no. Treat it as education and entertainment; use pools for consistent payouts.
Do pools reduce my long-run returns?
Expected value is the same (fees aside). Pools mainly reduce variance and pay you steadily.
Does faster block time always help?
It helps near-term odds by increasing trials/day. Long-run EV still comes from your hash share versus the network.